Age and Double Product (Systolic Blood Pressure × Heart Rate) Reserve-Adjusted Modification of the Duke Treadmill Score Nomogram in Men

The Duke Treadmill Score (DTS) is an established clinical tool for risk stratification. Our aim was to determine if other variables could improve the prognostic power of the DTS and if so, to modify the DTS nomogram. From a total of 1,959 patients referred for exercise testing at the Palo Alto VA Medical Center from 1997 to 2006 (a mean follow-up of 5.4 years), we studied 1,759 male veterans (age 57 ± 12 years) free of heart failure. Double product (DP) was calculated by multiplying systolic blood pressure and heart rate; variables and their products were subtracted to obtain the differences between at rest and maximal exercise (reserve) and recovery. Of all the hemodynamic measurements, DP reserve was the strongest predictor of cardiovascular death (CVD) (Wald Z-score −3.84, p <0.001) after adjustment for potential confounders. When the components of DTS were entered in the Cox hazard model with DP reserve and age, only DP reserve and age were chosen (p <0.00001). Using the Cox coefficients, a score calculated by [age − DTS – 3 × (DP reserve/1,000)] yielded an area under the curve of 0.84 compared with 0.76 for the DTS. Using this equation, a nomogram was constructed by adding age and DP reserve to the original DTS nomogram improving estimation of annual CVD. In conclusion, we propose an age and DP reserve-adjusted DTS nomogram that improves the prognostic estimates of average annual CVD over the DTS alone.